After June 6th, the 70th commemorations of D-Day over, there may be an announcement from QE2. Will she hand over before the next auspicious remembrance?
GB declared war on Germany Aug 4th 1914. Due to fumbled communications between Churchill and Admiral Milne, the British Mediterranean fleet let the battleship Goeben slip through to the Black Sea.
Although not a widely known historical event now, the escape of Goeben to Constantinople ultimately precipitated some of the most dramatic events of the 20th century.
General Ludendorff stated in his memoirs that he believed the entry of the Turks into the war allowed the outnumbered Central powers to fight on for two years longer than they would have been able on their own. The war was extended to the Middle East with main fronts of Gallipoli, the Sinai and Palestine, Mesopotamia, and the Caucasus. The course of the war in the Balkans was also influenced by the entry of the Ottoman Empire on the side of the Central Powers. Had the war ended in 1916, some of the bloodiest engagements, such as the Battle of the Somme, would have been avoided. The United States might not have been drawn from its policy of isolation to intervene in a foreign war.
In allying with the Central Powers, the Turks also shared their fate in ultimate defeat. This gave the victorious allies the opportunity to carve up the collapsed Ottoman Empire to suit their political whims. Many new nations were created including Palestine, Syria, Lebanon, Saudi Arabia and Iraq, and the idea of a Jewish state in Israel was considered for the first time.
Also, the closure of Russia′s only ice-free trade route through the Dardanelles effectively strangled the Russian economy. Unable to export grain or import munitions, the Russian army was isolated from her allies and slowly began to collapse. Combined with the German decision to release Vladimir Lenin in 1917, the sealing off of the Black Sea was one of the critical contributors to the “revolutionary situation” in Russia, which would explode into the October Revolution.
An unheralded change in the monarchy may be Labor’s best chance to crystallise around something that matters – the Republic. Failure to be ready, and nimble, would be awkward and would allow someone like Turnbull to take the running and set the agenda.
Whatever the Brits think about the origins of WW1, and its many consequences, Putin’s Russia will have reclaimed Crimea by then and will be on a roll to turn back the clock.
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